Probable Modeling of the Life Time of Electrical Distribution Transformers in the State of Bahia, Brazil
Keywords:
Survival Analysis, Electrical Distribution Transformers, Multivaried Statistics
Abstract
Life time modeling of equipments and systems by survival analysis techniques is highly significant in reliability and environmental studies. Current analysis performs a life time modeling of electrical distribution transformers in the state of Bahia, Brazil, and also comprises the construction of regression models to evaluate the construction characteristics with greater impact on the equipments´ life time. Transformers´ mean life time is 10.4 years and Weibull´s distribution has shown the best adherence to experimental data. Regression model proposed indicated that the number of phases in transformers is the most relevant structural characteristic for their life time. Suggestions have been provided for future research focused on life cycles analyses while taking into consideration of the complex climate data for the modeling of life time of the equipments under analysis.- FIGURA 1 Curva de sobrevivência não paramétrica para os transformadores instalados entre 1946 e 2010. (Português (Brasil))
- FIGURA 2 Avaliação gráfica do ajuste das distribuições de probabilidade log-logística (a), de Weibull (b) e lognormal (c). (Português (Brasil))
- FIGURA 3 Curva de sobrevivência dos transformadores instalados após 1999 (a) e dos transformadores instalados antes de 1999 (b). (Português (Brasil))
- FIGURA 4 Curvas de sobrevivência (acima) e funções de taxa de falha (abaixo) para diferentes tipos de transformadores. (Português (Brasil))
- FIGURA 5 Resíduos de Cox-Snell do modelo ajustado. (Português (Brasil))
- FIGURA 6 Gráfico dos resíduos do tipo deviance. (Português (Brasil))
Published
2013-06-12
Section
Artigos Originais
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