Cost trends with inputs in sugarcane production: an approach through Monte Carlo Simulation

Abstract

Brazil is one of the main players in sugarcane production, with the state of São Paulo being the largest producer in the country. However, the production costs of inputs (fertilizers, corrective, insecticide, fungicide and herbicide) are some of the factors that most influence the total cost of production. In the literature, there is an extensive number of studies focused on the costs of sugarcane production. However, there is a gap in showing the cost impact and its trend for the near future. This work was carried out with the aim of analyzing the trend of the aforementioned inputs. Scenario projections were carried out for a period of 12 months. These values ??were collected monthly, through direct interviews, with around 50 specialized companies. The method used was quantitative, being carried out using Monte Carlo Simulation (SMC). Mathematical models based on time series were used to make the forecast: Double Moving Average, (MMD); Non-Seasonal Damped Trend, (TANS); Simple Exponential Smoothing, (SES); Double Exponential Smoothing (SED) and ARIMA. The results showed that the insecticides Thiamethoxam and Limestone are on an upward trend. The other entries indicated the opposite. However, the forecast is high for the total cost in this period, with the costs of formulated fertilizers representing 82% of the total cost/ton of sugar cane at US$ 0.55, according to a survey of 76% of the level of probability carried out through SMC cumulative frequency analysis.