FLUCTUATION OF DEMAND OF EXPORTED BRAZILIAN PORK (1995-2013)
Keywords:
International Market, Structural Breaks, Pork
Abstract
Current assay estimates price fluctuations and cross-demand fluctuations of pork exported between January 1995 and June 2013, a period of economic stability due to the establishment of the Real Plan in Brazil. Monthly series of exported amounts, export prices, internal prices of pork, beef and chicken were harvested, coupled to the Brazilian GNP and exchange rates for the US dollar in data banks of the ministry of Development, Industry and External Commerce and of the Institute of Applied Economic research (IPEA). Regression by estimated Least Squares with Breaks and structural break was pinpointed by Bai-Perron procedures in February 2002. Break was due to price rise of corn and soybean, followed by fall in international prices of pork. External price of pork and the internal price of beef forecasted demand. After the break, predictors became the internal prices of beef and chicken and national income. Regression signal direction indicated that pork complements beef and substitutes chicken in the international market.
Published
2015-11-18
Section
Agrobusiness
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