Greenhouse gas emissions in Brazil: short and long term analysis

Abstract

The discussion about greenhouse gas emissions and changes in the global system are themes frequently debated by national and international literature. Thus, this article sought to examine the determinants of net emissions of greenhouse gases in Brazil, for the period from 1990 to 2017, inserting variables not considered until then. The time series approach was used and the elements analyzed were population, GDP per capita, cattle herd and vehicle fleet. First, the unit root tests revealed that the variables are integrated in order (I (1)). Subsequent results indicated that there was cointegration, and therefore a VEC model was estimated. The VEC model revealed that there was no short-term relationship between the variables, but in the long term, the 1% increase in the herd of cattle increased net greenhouse gas emissions by 4.41% in the period, whereas the increase of 1 % in the vehicle fleet reduced emissions by 2.62%. Although the negative effect of the vehicle fleet was contrary to expectations, it was stated that the reduction in emissions outweighed the effect of fleet size in the period due to the relatively short period of analysis, the recent economic crisis and the introduction of electronic injection and three-way catalytic converter in vehicles. Even so, the evidence points to the need for long-term economic and energy policies in Brazil.