EVALUATION OF PRICE BEHAVIOR IN BEEF BATTLE IN THE STATE OF RIO GRANDE DO SUL, BRAZIL, BETWEEN 2000 AND 2011

Abstract

Beef livestock is one of the most important economic activities in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. Price behavior for beef cattle is highly relevant for the planning of activities and decision-taking of the production chain agents. Current research evaluates the historical behavior of prices paid to beef cattle producers in the state by analysis of trends, seasonality and price cycles of beef cattle and sheep culture between 2000 and 2011. EMATER-RS data on monthly prices during the period under analysis were analyzed. Statistical analysis followed the classical multiplication method of temporal series. An ascending trend in prices paid for finished cattle was evidenced, with a 0.58% yearly growth rate during the period under analysis. Prices for lamb have a more seasonal behavior, with a 7.7% higher price in December and a 6.6% lower mean price in June. Price cycles of beef cattle and ovine market are regular and well-determined at long term. Price cycles paid to the sheep/lamb producers lasted 8 years, whereas beef cattle prices featured a 7.5-year duration. After 2007, it was reduced to a 3-year period, featuring the peak, contraction, depth and expansion phases of cycle behavior.